Source(s): United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR)
UNDRR
Wildfire risk has been increasing over the past quarter century as temperatures rise, precipitation decreases (including snow droughts), heatwave seasons grow longer, competition for forest resources intensifies, and wildlands are degraded.
Munich Re has estimated that over the period 2015-2024 the world incurred USD 136 billion in losses due to wildfires. The reinsurance industry report notes that although modeling wildfire risk is complex, it is clear that loss potential is growing. The stark picture presented by the report – data, trends, and discussion of underlying causes – made me reflect on my own experience.
In 1997–98, during one of the most severe El Niño events of the twentieth century, Indonesia experienced unprecedented wildfires. Nearly 10 million hectares of forest were burned – a land area larger than Austria or South Korea. The estimated economic losses were a staggering USD 17.8–19.6 billion in today’s terms. The fires burned the peatlands – natural carbon stores – and released vast amounts of CO2. Dense haze affected not only Indonesia but also much of Southeast Asia.
In response, affected countries came together and developed the ASEAN Haze Action Plan, with countries contributing specific technical capacities and taking responsibility for various aspects of wildfire prediction, prevention, and response.
In the aftermath of these fires, representing the Asian Disaster Preparedness Center, I joined a UN-Habitat-led inter-agency study to understand the causes of the forest fires and their impacts on human settlements. The fieldwork, and particularly the interactions I had with communities in East Kalimantan, has stayed with me.
Gentle reader,
Given the seriousness, complexity and scope of this issue, I cannot possibly present a definitive guide to effective wildfire risk management in this short article. Rather, I offer the ten fundamentals of wildfire risk management that I have learned from my experiences over the years:
1. Prevention is the cure
In disaster risk management, they say “prevention is better than cure” – however, for wildfires, prevention is the cure. While we must improve fire suppression capacities, we know that even countries with the most advanced firefighting capacities find it difficult to contain a wildfire once fully underway. Countries that invest in fire prevention see a marked decrease in fire prevalence and damage. For example, Portugal’s post-2017 national wildfire management plan shifted the focus to prevention, and subsequent years saw a significant decline in burned areas, even in the severe fire season of 2025.
2. Fire is not inherently bad
After all, in forested wildlands, controlled burning has been used as a forest management strategy for millennia. It can be used to clear the undergrowth and remove the fuel (e.g. dry leaves and wood) from the forest floor in order to prevent or slow large fires. However, such burns need to be carried out with care, as controlled fires too often get out of control to become destructive wildfires. It is important that controlled (or prescribed) burning brings to bear a combination of indigenous knowledge, modern forest management practices, and methods of forecasting fire susceptibility.
3. Sustainable management of wildlands is foundational
Effective wildfire risk management rests on sound and sustainable management of wildlands. In forested wildlands, this involves strong partnerships between forest managers, local communities, and private sector stakeholders. Good governance of forests – clarity of ownership, transparency in legitimate rights to forest resources, landscape level planning, and strategic vision for management of forest resources – is essential. The legal and customary rights of communities to profit from the forests – for example, by accessing non-timber forest produce such as medicinal plants, plant resins and fruits – contribute to a greater sense of ownership and participation in effective fire risk management.
4. Communities need to be principal actors in wildfire risk management
In many regions, communities have lived in and around wildlands for centuries, evolving a system of custodianship and conservation through regulated exploitation. Wildlands may support overlapping ecologically viable uses by multiple stakeholders. In forested wildlands, for example, a government forestry department may sustainably harvest timber, while local communities may harvest non-timber products like resins, mushrooms, leaves, ferns, nuts, or maple syrup. If such overlapping uses are clearly defined and equitably administered, communities have a stronger incentive to steward the land, reduce fire risks, and act as first responders.
5. Local capacity for wildfire suppression is of paramount importance
Local capacities such as provision of access to local water sources, firefighting equipment, locally trained firefighters, and trained volunteer groups are critical for an effective fire response, especially for the all-important initial intervention. Locally based systems are agile and can respond quickly, so they stand the best chance of containing a fire before it spreads – this means they are often as important as more advanced technologies like aerial firefighting systems.
6. Wildfires differ from ecosystem to ecosystem
In some types of wildlands, the fires may be largely crown fires. In other types, the fires may affect the undergrowth more than the trees. In grassy plains fires may burn relatively cool, but spread over vast distances at great speed. Some Australian eucalypts can disperse windborne firebrands, igniting new fire fronts far from the initial blaze. Each type of fire needs its own unique approach for prevention and suppression. In any wildfire risk management system, knowledge and expertise on the specific ecosystems themselves becomes of central importance.
7. The impact of wildfire is often underestimated
The impact of wildfires is often presented in the form of area burnt or the financial value of assets lost. When wildfires affect high-value areas these financial costs can make the disasters amongst the most expensive, such as the fires that tore through parts of Los Angeles in January 2025, causing the most expensive event of the year for insurers. But the true impact can be even more devastating and is often underestimated because non-economic losses such as loss of biodiversity, disruption of eco-system services, and impact on public health are often not taken into account.
8. We can “build back better” after wildfires
The notion of “build back better” after earthquakes and cyclones is an accepted key guiding principle of post-disaster recovery. It largely applies to making the built environment more resilient and strengthening livelihood systems. That same intentionality is needed for recovery after wildfires. How do we address the loss of old-growth forests? How do we plan ecological restoration to enable resilience to future hazards and restore ecosystem functions such as wildlife habitat or economically and culturally important ecosystem services for local communities? This requires careful planning, sustained investment and long-term community participation.
9. The promise of technology is underutilized
Advancements in remote sensing, and the growing application of AI make it possible to detect forest fires as well as issue danger alerts or early warnings based on temperature, humidity, wind, and fuel conditions. However, these technologies cannot be applied in isolation. Remote observations must be corroborated and complemented by ground observations to develop location-specific fire danger alert systems. Equally important are feedback mechanisms to assess whether alerts are understood and acted upon by communities and local officials. Systems such as the GEO-led Global Wildfire Information System (GWIS) demonstrate this comprehensive approach and need adoption at scale.
10. We must increase investment in wildfire risk management
Greater public awareness of the economic, social, cultural and ecological value of forests and wildlands can help create a stronger social demand for wildfire prevention, and make a robust public policy case for much greater investment in all aspects of wildfire risk management. These investments must cover the full risk management cycle – real time information management, risk reduction, seasonal preparedness, response capacities, and resilient recovery. It is important that the entire spectrum of needs is resourced, as underinvestment in any one area weakens the whole system.
As the Munich Re report points out, wildfires are no longer isolated episodes. Wildfire risk – and the associated loss potential – is increasing, and as we develop new solutions, whether in financial risk management or in technological advances for fire prevention, detection, and suppression, it is essential that we do not lose sight of the ten fundamentals outlined above.